Breath biome sensors in a smart toothbrush might detect genetic changes that indicate early stages of disease. Along with companies that develop health products, other organizations will provide the structure that supports virtual communities. These communities could be defined by geography, or they might be communities made up of people with a certain health condition. A community could also be comprised of a patient, his or her family members, and supporters. Specialty care operators world-class health centers, event-specific facilities.
Two decades from now, we will still have disease, which means we will still need specialty care providers and highly specialized facilities where those patients can receive care.
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Localized health hubs. While there will be some specialty care, most health care will likely be delivered in localized health hubs. The brick-and-mortar hubs will serve as shopping centers for education, prevention, and treatment in a retail setting. Additionally, local hubs will connect consumers to virtual, home, and auxiliary wellness providers.
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Care enablement. Financiers and intermediaries will facilitate consumer payment and coordinate supply logistics, respectively, but they could experience decreases in margins and share of profits, driven by advanced analytics and risk assessment. Connectors and intermediaries enterprise tool developers, supply chain designers and coordinators, delivery service providers.
These are the logistics providers that will run the just-in-time supply chain, facilitate device and medication procurement operations, and get the product to the consumer. Individualized financiers N of 1 insurers, catastrophic care insurers, government safety net payers. Similar to health insurers of today, these organizations will create the financial products that individuals will use to navigate their care, but these products will offer more specific, tailored, and modular products, as well as catastrophic care coverage packages.
Some individual financiers will include noninsurance financing products for example, loans, lines of credits, subscriptions. They will drive reductions in care costs by leveraging advanced risk models, consumer incentives, and market power. Regulators market leaders and innovators, government regulators and policy makers.
They will set the standards for how business is transacted. The regulators of the future will influence policy in an effort to catalyze the future of health and drive innovation while promoting consumer and public safety they might be as much collaborators in transformation as stewards. We envision an era of unprecedented change and opportunity.
New business models will incorporate these archetypes and redefine the health landscape. Organizations should choose where they want to play across these archetypes. For example:. Hospitals and health systems. The acute-care hospital will no longer serve as the center of gravity.
Instead, the center of gravity in this new system will be consumers. Organizations that want to play a role in the delivery of care should determine how they can expand their points of access to get closer—both physically and digitally—to their customers.
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Health care providers should also find ways to decrease delivery costs to maintain margins. Near-term strategies might include enabling patient self-service, creating more remote and virtual health solutions, digitization, and advanced population management. Health plans. Using the wealth of data they possess, health plans could develop new revenue streams based on consumer insights, monetization of data, population health initiatives, and customized offerings. Medical device companies. An increased focus on prevention and early intervention— combined with advances in biosensors and digital technology —can create new opportunities for medical technology companies.
But they might not be able to take advantage of those opportunities on their own. Over the next two years, more than 80 percent of medtech companies expect to collaborate with organizations from outside of the health sector , according to a survey by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions and AdvaMed. Drug manufacturers. Biopharmaceutical companies are set to develop hyper-tailored therapies that cure disease rather than treat symptoms.
Individual drug prices could rise as therapies become more efficacious and applied in more targeted populations. However, overall drug spending could decrease as the unit volume falls.
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Advanced early intervention and enhanced adherence could also help ensure the effectiveness of these new therapies. The health industry is on the cusp of a transformation that will affect all stakeholders. Incumbent players can either lead this transformation as innovative and well-connected market leaders or they can try to resist this inevitable change. A wide range of companies—from inside and outside of the health care sector—are already making strategic investments that could form the foundation for a future of health that is defined by radically interoperable data, open and secure platforms, and consumer-driven care.
Build new businesses. The incidence and prevalence of major chronic diseases for example, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, COPD will likely decline dramatically. In response, health organizations should adjust their business models to stay competitive. Forge partnerships.
Technology giants, start-ups, and other disruptors are new to the health care landscape but are incentivized to drive change. What they lack is health care expertise, regulatory expertise, a targeted consumer base, and existing partnerships with other incumbents. Disruptors will likely be more willing to partner with incumbents that are seen as driving innovation. Appeal to the newly empowered health consumer. Stakeholders should develop tactics to engage effectively with consumers.
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They should also work to earn their trust and demonstrate value. Consumer attitudes and behaviors are malleable in the future of health. Interoperable data, machine and deep learning capabilities, always-on biosensors, and behavioral research can enable personalized and real-time AI-driven behavioral interventions that shape consumer beliefs and actions.
In the future of health, incumbents and industry disruptors will share a common purpose.
About the Author
While disease will never be completely eliminated, through science, data, and technology, we will be able to identify it earlier, intervene proactively, and understand its progression to help consumers effectively and actively sustain their well-being. The future will be focused on wellness and managed by companies that assume new roles to drive value in a transformed health ecosystem. If this vision for the future of health is realized, we could see healthier populations and dramatic decreases in health care spending.
View in article. Leonardo Secchin Canale et al. S—49, DOI: Forces of change: The Future of Health is an independent publication and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. The health industry is on the cusp of a major transformation that will affect all stakeholders.
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